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February 21 2009

Nationalizing the Banks

Reading and watching the news, I'm coming to think that some banks may in fact actually be nationalized in the coming months.  Consider the following:

1.  The continued deterioration in the economy in general and the housing market in particular.  As more and more people lose their jobs and housing prices continue to decline, the quality of the assets on the books of the banks is falling precipitously.  On February 12, 2009, the New York Times wrote the following:

Some of the nation’s large banks, according to economists and other finance experts, are like dead men walking. . . A sober assessment of the growing mountain of losses from bad bets, measured in today’s marketplace, would overwhelm the value of the banks’ assets, they say. The banks, in their view, are insolvent

2.  The second trend is the rapidly escalating talk of the acceptability – if not inevitability – of the federal government nationalizing some banks.  When pressed at today’s press conference, Presidential Press Secretary Robert Gibbs would not specifically rule out nationalizing Bank of America and Citigroup.  The attached chart gives an overview to the cascade of (bipartisan) commentary expressing openness to nationalization. <!--endfragment-->

Given this uncertainty and then adding in the mounting near-consensus about the likelihood of nationalization, it would seem to be extremely riskyto be invested in the financial services sector at all. <!--endfragment-->